Several global climate meets attended by presidents and prime ministers of different countries across the world have not resulted in any improvement in the climate change crisis. N.S. Venkataraman suggests a way to achieve a different outcome for the upcoming one in Baku, Azerbaijan
The next global climate meet (COP 29), the UN Climate Change Conference, is scheduled to take place in Baku, Azerbaijan in November this year. Twenty-eight such meetings have taken place so far in different countries, all marked by much fanfare, tall talk, impressive targets and some action plans too, particularly with regard to funding by developed countries for less developed countries. However, the ground reality is that in spite of such deliberations and action plans, global temperature continues to rise.
Several parts of the world are already experiencing erratic weather conditions. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has forecast record temperatures above those in the 1991-2020 reference period, across the globe till 2028. The global mean surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1 degree C and 1.5 degree C, higher than the average in the years 1850 to 1900. This is something the world should be concerned about. In such conditions, the upcoming Azerbaijan climate meet may be viewed with scepticism by people across the world.
Need to reduce fossil fuel consumption
Drastically curbing and ultimately stopping the rise in global temperature is crucial to overcoming the climate crisis. There is universal agreement that the increasing emission of carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane are the primary reasons for the rise in temperature. Emission of such noxious gases happens due to the use of fossil fuel such as coal and crude oil, as well as methane emission from livestock and agricultural methods – for example, flooded paddy cultivation. Production and consumption of fossil fuels have to be brought down significantly immediately. This is not happening.
Tall targets but little progress
At the climate meetings held in Paris and Glasgow and at subsequent discussions, several countries promised to curb emission and achieve zero level within a specified time frame. While targets have been fixed, nothing worthwhile has been done to meet them. On the contrary, production and use of coal and crude oil have been steadily increasing.
Countries that produce crude oil in massive quantity, such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and the US, are unwilling to reduce output, claiming that it would adversely impact their national economies. Similarly, countries using huge amounts of coal and crude oil, like India, China and Indonesia, say bringing down consumption would affect economic growth. In other words, the promises to achieve zero emission by various countries appear hollow.
Other options
There are alternatives to fossil fuel such as green hydrogen, renewable power (solar, wind and hydro), bio-fuels and nuclear energy, but they have limitations and cannot be viable substitutes in terms of quantity. In the case of green hydrogen, production cost is also a hurdle. In such a situation, how can the climate change threat be countered?
The solution lies in reducing the demand for fossil fuel, thereby leading to a reduction in the emission of noxious gases, without affecting economic growth. The only way to achieve this seems to be to gradually but steadily reduce global population – this will bring down energy consumption.
Rising population
In 1960, the world population was 3.3. billion. This went up to 6.15 billion in 2000 and to 7.97 billion in 2022. The average annual growth rate was around 1.6 per cent. According to several studies, the world population will be as high as 10 billion by 2060. Such growth could create an unmanageable scenario with regard to consumption of fossil fuel and consequent generation of noxious emissions. This will lead to a steep rise in global temperature.
Focus for Azerbaijan meet
Considering the circumstances, the only way is to fix a target for global population reduction, with particular focus on over-populated developing countries. Developed countries can consider providing technological and financial support to developing nations to steadily bring down population density. Thus, to ensure that the Azerbaijan Climate Meet does not become a non-productive exercise like earlier gatherings, the delegates should arrive at a population reduction target for the world.
(The writer is managing trustee, Nandini Voice for the Deprived. He is a chemical engineer and lives in Chennai.)