N.S. Venkataraman paints a worrying picture of multiple repercussions that India’s unchecked population growth can have, not only within the country but on a global scale too
In 2024, India achieved the dubious distinction of being the most populated country in the world. The country now accounts for 17.76 per cent of the people in the world. What is more, the figures are rising, and some experts feel by 2050 it may well touch 2000 million, up from the present population of around 1440 million. India’s population in 1950 was 359 million and the current figure increased by 13 million in just one year.
Some people argue that the situation may not be alarming, since India gains demographic advantages, but more discerning observers are of the view that this could pose serious economic and social challenges that may even destabilise the society to some extent. While India’s population density is 438.58 people per square kilometre in its 3,287,263 sq km area, the US population is 340 million in an area of 9,372,610 sq km, a density of 34.7 people per sq km. If India had only half its present population, could the country have matched the US in economic and industrial growth profile, as some people believe?
There are many other factors influencing the growth profile of any country, but there is no doubt that the extent of the population growth has nullified the positive effects of several economic and industrial measures in the 75 years after Independence. Of course, India’s agricultural and industrial production have significantly increased, ensuring that there is no food scarcity in the country. At the same time, around 15 per cent of Indians still live below the poverty line and around 40 per cent are only marginally above it.
Overpopulation makes it impossible to generate adequate employment, resulting in joblessness and under-employment. It is well-known that an idle brain is the devil’s workshop. Unemployment levels inevitably lead to social restlessness caused by unequal distribution of income and opportunities for people to engage in profitable activity. It is also well known that work provides meaning in life.
During the past ten years, phenomenal and positive developments have taken place in India in multiple areas, such as infrastructure and industrial production, and foreign exchange has grown to a record level. But this has not led to job opportunities. In other words, the growth graph has not translated into employment generation on a very large scale. In the coming years, with technology developments such as artificial intelligence and humanoid robots, manpower requirement are likely to reduce drastically.
A huge population also leads to emission issues that contribute to global warming. In one day, the average person breathes out around 500 litres of the carbon dioxide (CO2) which amounts to around 1 kg in mass. With population increase remaining unchecked in India, the country will be a significant contributor to the global emission of carbon dioxide. In this context, it is strange that India has agreed to strive for zero emission level by the year 2070. In announcing the target, the country has focussed on fossil fuels and methane emission from livestock but has not considered the emission of carbon dioxide by humans.
While economic and industrial growth are being targeted by the government of India, it is impossible to provide employment opportunities at the scale required. In such circumstances, it is inevitable that the unemployed and even those with low skill will try to migrate to developed countries with low population densities. This is already happening in European countries, the US and Canada. Though at present, the immigrant population in these countries is not so much from India, this may change in the coming years.
A large country like India with huge population and large-scale unemployment levels that could lead to social unrest can be a matter of global concern. Sometime ago, a former US President remarked that Indians eat too much, causing world food shortage. Certainly, it was an obnoxious statement, but it gives a heads-up about a possible problem that overpopulation in a country like India could cause. During the last phase of second term of Prime Minister Modi, a committee was appointed to study population density and the steady growth of population. It is hoped that during the current third term of the ruling party, some measures will be taken to curb population growth.
(The writer is managing trustee, Nandini Voice for the Deprived. He is a chemical engineer and lives in Chennai.)
from Webdoux